What may have caused Black Friday in Microsoft stock?

Yesterday, Friday the 19th, Microsoft suffered a veritable “black Friday” on the stock market when its values ​​fell by more than 11% in a few hours . Filling hundreds of thousands of investors throughout the world with concern.

But you have to take a look at the events of the last few days to try to understand why this outbreak that hit the giant's titles yesterday.

The figures for the last quarter and the media

What would you think of a multinational that has invoiced in the last year a volume of money similar to all the money that Spain has "gifted" to the banks(77.$900 million); that in the last quarter it has consolidated benefits for almost 20,000,000,000 dollars; and, overall, has it increased its profits by 10% compared to last year?

Well, in the cybersphere media, physical or virtual, almost unanimously, these results have been published or commented on as something negative or , directly, as a catastrophe that requires an immediate change of course.

Why?

On the one hand, if we adjust the analysis only to this last year and review it by quarters, certainly the trend is that in each of them revenues and profits are lower than in the previous ones.

But the big shadow, not because of its volume but because of a disastrous communication policy, is the suspicious reallocation of funds, 900 “millioncejos of nothing” , to stock SurfaceRT tablets.

Windows 8 RT and Surface RT

Note that we are talking about almost 5% of the benefits, but if you add to this that there is no way for Microsoft to say how many tablets it has ordered to be made; nor how many it has sold – having estimates that it has more than 6 million unsold units in stock; and the doubts that continue to exist in the market about the future of RTs, has been enough to place these "losses" in all the holders.

A perfect example of placing the accent where it produces the most impact on the reader, without any proportion to the importance of the number itself.

It is true that RT is not working well, that both the operating system and the hardware suffer from maturity problems That the number of apps in the stores is large, but the quality or relevance of the apps lags far behind its main competition (the iPad).

But from Microsoft they insist over and over again that the entire RT ecosystem will continue, that there are no plans to bring the Windows Phone operating system to tablets, and that RT will not be absorbed by PROs either .

And looking at the volume of business they have to “sacrifice” to keep SurfaceRT and its version of Windows 8 alive, I think could sustain it for decades without it hurting dent in the income statements.

The shadow that has pawned spectacular results

Another consequence of the “herald the downfall of a giant” effect is that it has directly clouded or obscured the impressive growth figures for divisions and productswhich are, orders of magnitude, more relevant in numbers than the “losses” of SurfaceRT.

For example, Office 365 has increased its numbers by more than 50% in a single quarter (yes, in three months), from $1 billion to more than $1.5 billion. To make it more understandable, they have earned almost 6 million dollars a day more than the day before .

O Windows Phone, in the same period of time increases its benefits by more than 200 million dollars. Of course, you have to add the roy alties charged by each Android.

It has even minimized the fact that all divisions, without a single exception, have increased both turnover and profits compared to last year.

What has produced Black Friday?

The stock markets have redefined the word “volatile”. In a couple of hours they are able to elevate a company and send it to the pit of losses. And, furthermore, in a rather chaotic way.

Small investors, associated or not, are moved by impulses similar to large shoals And when an alarm signal is released in In most media, the start of a sale of securities can lead, as in this case, to a cascade of orders that knock down the share price.

Or, just the opposite, recognizing it as a good time to take profits, start a “fool last” race until the stock price returns to a value (make a correction, say the experts) where their sale no longer produces benefits for investors.

You also have to keep an eye on the big sharks of finance, and little news like the investment group ValueAct Capital bought $2 billion in shares last April with the aim of getting a seat in the Microsoft government, you can also indicate a maneuver to increase your presence in the company – right now it is assumed that you have more in your possession 0.4% - at a much cheaper price (Friday's drop has come in handy).

Lastly, Ballmer's own words about the restructuring of the company and a succession plan at Microsoft, add concern to a stock market that has reached, in the last decade, a constant and permanent state of nerves on the surface.

Fonts | Microsoft News, ValueAct negotiating for seat on Microsoft board: Report, Microsoft's $900 million Surface RT write-down: How did this happen?