Microsoft's dilemma with Windows 10 free
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Probably most users who are testing Windows 10 found out about the almost soap opera that has occurred with the supposed free system operational for program participants Insider Initially, a note was published implying that said users would access the final version for free, forever, then edited the ad to the confusion, and finally clarified everything, stating that they would only keep their version of Windows activated if they stayed in the testing program , thus agreeing to install future unstable builds after the final version is released.
But beyond what Microsoft has announced for this particular case, there are reasons to believe that, in practice, it won't be very difficult to use the operating system for free , even in cases not covered by the free upgrade promotion.
The reason for this is what Ed Bott points out in the second half of the article: the incompatibility between having a very strict activation system against pirates, and fulfilling the goal they have set that 1 billion devices will be running Windows 10 within 2-3 years.
Why would these 2 goals be incompatible? Mainly because Windows users, whether we like it or not, tend to be more averse to change, even when we are facing a new version that is superior in all aspects to its predecessors.Microsoft knows this, and that's why it's unleashing an almost unprecedented campaign to give users of older versions a little push and convince them to upgrade to Windows 10 within the first year of the promotion.
The problem is that this campaign is not enough to achieve the hundreds of millions of updates that Microsoft needs to achieve its goal. The upgrade process is also required to be easy, fast and frictionless. If the update presents too many obstacles or requirements, many users could give up, choosing to stay in their comfort zone>"
Therein lies the incompatibility with having a very strict activation system.Having to search for product keys, or going through other more advanced verification systems is friction, and therefore Microsoft will seek to avoid it. The most likely consequence of this is a lax activation system, easy to evade, and may fail to enforce legitimate and non-legitimate update rules that the same company has established.
The importance of the billion Windows 10 devices
Why is it so important that Windows 10 reaches such a usage figure in such a short time, even at the cost of not penalizing pirates in all cases? Wouldn't it be better to have fewer users, but get more of them to pay for the corresponding licenses? No, because what Microsoft urgently needs is for Windows to gain relevance as a universal platform for developers, in order to definitively jump on the bandwagon of mobile and mobile stores. applications, markets that do not stop growing (unlike that of PC licenses and sales, which are stagnant).
"And even so, the revenue that Microsoft would miss out on for not being so tough on hackers (a.k.a. users who don&39;t qualify for the free upgrade) isn&39;t that much, as it&39;s users whothey wouldn&39;t pay for licenses anyway Redmond will continue to receive revenue from OEM licenses to manufacturers, which will not drop in price, and from business licenses, which will not be subject to the free upgrade promotion, and that also when using a different edition of Windows 10 (Enterprise) may incorporate a different and stricter activation system "
"Let the pirates come to me"
This is not to say that Windows 10 is officially going to be free for pirates or anything like that. That is an issue already settled, and Microsoft's official position is clear: no. I'm simply arguing that they'll probably choose not to plug all the holes that allow them to bypass those rules, as doing so could create friction in the legal upgrade process, something that Redmond will want to avoid it at all costs because it interferes with Windows 10 reaching a critical mass of users as soon as possible.
Windows will remain paid for now (and Microsoft will continue to receive huge revenue from license sales), but I think hacking it will be more easier than ever for end users. Or maybe I'm wrong and Microsoft pulls out from under the hat an activation system that's hard to break, yet presents little friction, but that's unlikely , and so far we haven't seen anything pointing there.
