What's Happening to Windows 8 Sales?

One month after the launch of Windows 8, statements and studies on the success of the new Microsoft system continue, in many cases contradictory. What is really going on with Windows 8? How is it performing in the market, and why are we seeing this sales data?

Windows 8 versus its predecessors

Tami Reller announced a few days ago that Windows 8 had sold 40 million licenses in the first month. That's an impressive number, but we can't understand it without a bit of context .

Windows XP sold 17 million licenses in two months. Windows Vista, 20 million in one month, and Microsoft's latest, Windows 7, reached 60 million licenses sold in two months. However, these figures are not very useful if we do not put them in relation to the volume of PCs at each moment (the computer market has grown and therefore it is normal for licenses sold to grow as well).

Since I unfortunately don't have the numbers of the number of computers in the world, we will use a related metric: the number of computers distributed according to IDC. It is by no means exact, but I do intend to have something indicative, which can give us an idea of ​​the real success of Windows 8. The graph is as follows (you have all the data with its sources in an Excel sheet in Office Web Apps).

As seen in the graph: Yes, Windows 8 has been far more successful than its predecessors, both in absolute numbers and in terms of licenses sold relative to the volume of PCs.It will actually be a bit less since we're counting Windows 8 tablet licenses in PC sales, but the positive trend is still very clear.

The not so good numbers

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But it&39;s not all good numbers with Windows 8. Paul Thurrott commented that Windows 7 had been selling licenses at a rate of 20 million a month. Seen like this, Windows 8 only >"

"This report states that sales of Windows devices have dropped 21% compared to the previous year, that Windows 8 only>"

Are these numbers bad? Could be. Personally, I'm not too surprised. Not because I think Windows 8 is going to fail, but because there are many factors that prevent rapid adoption.

Reluctance to change

Windows users are generally not very amenable to change. Both in the business world and in the user world we are used to a system that has not undergone radical changes in many years. You just have to put the Windows 95 interface next to the 7 interface to realize it.

"But now comes Windows 8, a complete paradigm shift. The start menu that is no longer there, a Modern UI main screen, which have nothing to do with what we were used to, and a new type of applications that do not look like traditional Windows either. Everything is different."

"The change is so abrupt that it is difficult to convince ordinary users to change . The first time someone picks up Windows 8, they wonder where my Start button is>"

And in companies, things are even more difficult for change to be immediate. If it is already difficult for systems to be updated in the business world, imagine if workers also have to adapt to a new interface.

The good thing about this is that the reluctance goes away when time passes. Windows 8 is a system that shocks at first, yes, but as soon as you spend an hour or two using it, it seems much better than its predecessors. For both ease of use and speed, Windows 8 is far superior to any other operating system.

So it's only a matter of time before Windows 8 starts to catch on. There won't be a quick change because it's too radical a change, but I'm sure that little by little Windows 8 will gain more acceptance.

Let's go back to computer sales

We have just seen why it is difficult for Windows 8 to have a mass acceptance among users. But in the NPD report that I mentioned before, we were not only talking about Windows 8, but also about tablets, laptops and other computers.Why aren't sales of Windows devices increasing?

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First, because the new categories still cause a bit of suspicion, especially among the distributors themselves (we already told you that the distribution of new machines with Windows 8 is not being very good). Normal users see convertibles and hybrids as strange things. Until they start to distribute a bit and some try it, there will be no more demand (my friend > has that."

The same thing happens on tablets. The iPad is the king of this sector, and the first Android tablets have not done much to show that there are alternatives to Apple. It will take a while for Windows tablets to hit stores and catch on with users.

And as for laptops and desktops, the problem we have is the reluctance to change from before: Windows 8 is not yet known and not everyone is going to opt for the new system, even more so when there are plenty of Windows 7 units left in stores .

In short, Windows 8 devices aren't going to be top sellers at first for two reasons: one, that vendors aren't betting on them when introducing new categories, and two, that with The big change that is Windows 8 will still take users to accept and buy the new system.

Does this mean that Windows 8 is going to fail? Not at all

Yes, the early sales data for Windows 8 isn't going to be spectacular. But is normal. In general, I think that the license data and the acceptance among developers are very good data, which makes us think that as users get used to it, Windows will gain a lot of traction.

Microsoft's bet is risky. A more conservative system would have brought more sales at the beginning, of course, but then the Redmonds would continue in a comfortable and non-innovative position that would end up taking its toll in the future.I think they have done what they should, and that in the future the figures will prove it.

"For now, we have to evaluate the data that arrives from the perspective that I am commenting on: the beginning is not going to be easy because the change is very radical. Once the shock is over, those data will improve a lot ."