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Drama memory will continue to drop in price drastically

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Contract prices for DRAM PC products have started to drop sharply in October as major vendors have completed most contract negotiations.

Good news, DRAM memory already drops in price drastically

The average price of 4GB modules for 4Q18 contracts has been reduced by 10.14% QoQ from US $ 34.5 in 3Q18 to the current US $ 31. Regarding the average contract price of 8GB modules, it has been reduced by 10.29% QoQ from US $ 68 in 3Q18 to the current US $ 61. Given that the DRAM market has just entered an oversupply, the possibility of further price falls in November and December is not ruled out. Additionally, the decline in prices for 8GB solutions will continue to outpace that of 4GB solutions because vendors are eager to sell their inventory.

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While the oversupply situation and falling spot prices are causing contract prices for PC DRAM modules to drop, the market penetration for 8GB modules is starting to rise very rapidly because Suppliers have aggressively expanded shipments of higher-density products. Additionally, DRAMeXchange believes that 8GB modules will outperform 4GB modules in shipping volume much earlier than originally anticipated and will become the mainstream of the market.

OEM PCs were unable to increase their product shipments in 2H18 due to Intel's CPU shortage. Going forward, the pressure of increasing component costs will only increase as the shipping season shifts from the longest to the shortest period. Given that DRAM prices had risen for nine consecutive quarters, they are expected to sink as they pass the tipping point.

Looking ahead to 1Q19, headwind winds will affect final product shipments not only in the PC market, but also in the server and smartphone markets. In addition, the quarter will be the period for the channel market and OEMs to eliminate excess inventory. Therefore, negotiating contracts will be a great challenge for DRAM providers.

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