What about the price of the ryzen 3000?

The Yields determine the price . Have the leaks failed? During the previous months we have seen leaks come and go on all kinds of technical characteristics of the recently introduced AMD Ryzen 3000. Frequencies, IPC improvements, memory speeds, etc…

Likewise, the approximate prices that would be requested for each chip also appeared in these leaks.

After the inaugural conference of Computex this morning (Spanish time) in which Lisa Su finally offered information and dates officially, it seems that a part of the 'leaks' can be considered as good, but another… less.

The current cost of the production node depends on its maturation and Yield reached.

The Yields determine the price.

Taking into account that the number of SKUs that have been presented in relation to the total Ryzen portfolio is minimal and that those that have been belong to the 'top-tier' (the most expensive: series 7 and 9), we see that the number of cores does not increase by the same price as the previous generation, or that by maintaining the number of cores the price does not decrease significantly.

Valid, invalid cores. Partially valid and dies that touch the perimeter.

Or at least it does not decrease as expected, continuing the trend of the previous two generations.

What happens? Have you forgotten your AMD premise of offering cheap CPUS and lowering its price in every generation?

The answer is: current yield + fab change + node change.

Ryzen 3000 with 2 chiplets. Yields of 70%. At the moment expensive.

Processors from the previous 2 Ryzen generations, manufactured by Globalfoundries on Zen Core, currently a mature node (14/14 +), are estimated to be close to 90%.

Prices starting Ryzen 1000 and after one year. 14nm -> 14+ / improvement Yields.

This high percentage satisfies the premise / request of AMD to the fabs of needing high Yields that allow them to take advantage of each wafer as much as possible, obtaining the maximum number of valid and usable zen cores (1 and 2), which has repercussions in being able to lower the price of each chip when obtaining a very high number of them valid per wafer.

Prices launch Ryzen 2nd gen. with improved Yields / Mature node.

The third generation of Ryzen, as you all know for sure, is manufactured by TSMC in a new node that is in the process of maturing (7nm) and it is estimated that the current Yields they offer to AMD are 70%, with expectations that they will improve in successive months, which would allow readjusting the prices of these chips and recovering the usual trend seen in the previous 2 generations.

Prices go up: leave a mature node and jump to a lower one but to be developed.

Clearly we see a noticeable decrease in the total number of usable chips that can be sold for each wafer of the same dimensions as those of the older chips (we will assume that the price of the wafer is the same regardless of whether it is Glofo / TSMC to simplify the case).

The price of each chip is sensitive to the current Yield according to AMD's premises.

The Yield is achieved by the fab. AMD decides to build or wait for them to improve based on what the fab reports it gets in low volume test 'runs'. Once it is decided to start manufacturing in large volume runs, over the months it is expected that the 'maturation' of the node will progressively occur.

3rd generation, but involution in regards to Yield: More expensive than the previous one.

This is nothing else that the fab can readjust and improve the chain manufacturing process, taking advantage of the opportunity that each wafer physically offers, resulting in a higher percentage of zen cores that are not damaged in the manufacturing process, or zen cores with ccx with cores that hold more frequently, or with fewer cores that must be deactivated.

In Computex, the Ryzen 3000 that have been presented offer 8 cores that would represent a single chiplet in which all the cores are ok.

3700X, lower your TDP thanks to 7nm.

But we manage the data that the manufacturing ratio of each zen 2 wafer in TSMC is 70%. So for each one used, we deduce that zen 2 cores appear that are not perfect or that are damaged (partially or totally).

And AMD's premise in Zen is to maximize the use of zen cores in order to offer low prices.

The top of the range currently presented, debuting the 9 series (note, we are still in the mainstream), offers us 12 cores and uses 2 chiplets. To the disappointment of many, they have not announced a 16-core Ryzen 3000 (which would mount 2 8-core chiplets each that would be a perfect pair of 2 core zen effects). Reason: In my opinion, AMD is not worth the price that customers would currently have to ask for it, so wait for TSMC to mature the node.

Let's connect the points:

We have a Yield of 70% in the fab that supplies us with the raw material of the Ryzen 3000: the Zen 2 core.

You have to try to use all the zen 2 cores, not just the ones that are very good or perfect. Exiting them means being able to lower everyone's price according to the current Yield, hoping to lower them even more if we improve the Yield in the future. Failure to do so, the price of the Ryzen 3000 that were put up for sale, would have to be higher than what they have announced, since they would sell less zen 2 cores per used wafer than would be achieved by also leaving those who are not perfect.

3800X 105W TDP. Directly compare to 1800X, exiting only in 1st gen.

Using a single chiplet for 6/8 core processors (Ryzen 5 and 7) allows you to use the perfect and valid zen 2 cores with some core disabled from the wafers, saving you from using a second chiplet to achieve this final number of core count.

Making the 12 core Ryzen 9 can be accomplished using a valid pair of chiplets with some core disabled (6 + 6), or a perfect chiplet and one in which half of the cores are damaged, with only the other half working (4).

Ryzen 9. 2 chiplets. 12 cores now. 16 cheaper cores when the Yields improve.

The way zen 2 core is damaged in the wafer manufacturing process is different depending on whether they are inner units of the wafer or belonging to the outer perimeter. Thanks to the binning of each chip, it is possible to determine if it will be better to use the chip in one way or another when using it to make a CPU of one series or another, always seeking to maximize the use of the wafer, producing CPUS of quality.

Summing up:

• The price of Ryzen 3000 with more than 6 cores and, above all, that use more than 1 chiplet is affected (made more expensive) by the current Yield that the fab achieves in manufacturing (70%). That this ratio improves, when and how much is something that depends exclusively on the fab. The only thing that can be expected is that the more cpus they make, the more possibilities they have to improve the Yield they have. AMD will readjust the best price that it can offer in the cpus that are made using the zen core 2 that come out of each wafer that is manufactured in the fab… and maybe the price is a bit more like the leaks of all these months. What is certain is that the price of the cpus, keeping the number of cores of the generation, will still be reduced in case of improving the Yield per wafer in production, which is not crazy, but it takes time.

The reverse reading is that the Ryzen 3000 cpus that since July 7 AMD will offer us 12 or more cores, do not meet their best minimum price expectation for which they calculate that they could offer, but with filming in TSMC and time will allow reach it when the fab provides you with more chips for each wafer.

If this is achieved, it means that they have optimized the node and / or have improved the Yield of the manufacturing process.